The Defensive Job Market
Tech Sentiment in 2026
Overview
Tech professionals are caught in a defining paradox. Three-quarters plan to change employers in the next year, yet fewer than half believe they'll find something better. Burnout doubled. Daily AI use quadrupled. Layoffs directly or indirectly touched two-thirds of the workforce. And confidence in tech's long-term future dropped from 80% to 60%.
The rules changed. What used to signal ambition (high job mobility, skills investment, career agility) now reflects something different: defensive repositioning in a market where staying put can feel riskier than moving.
This creates both challenge and opportunity for employers and staffing firms.
The talent pool is more mobile than it's been in years, but candidates are moving from anxiety, not confidence. For staffing firms, this means high-intent candidates who are harder to close. For employers, it means retention risks are escalating even as hiring gets more competitive. Understanding why tech professionals are moving—and what they need to hear—is the difference between winning placements competitors miss and watching talent churn before ROI is realized.
Report Methodology
This report draws on findings from a November–December 2025 survey of 1,159 U.S. tech professionals conducted by Dice. Respondents included a mix of full-time, part-time, contract, and job-seeking tech workers, all aged 18 or older. The research examined tech professionals' perspectives on the job market, economic and industry outlook, and the use and governance of AI in their work. Historical trend analyses incorporate data from Dice's Q2 2024 and Q2 2023 Technology Professionals Sentiment Surveys.
The movement without momentum
74%
of tech professionals are likely to change employers in the next year
41%
are confident they could find a favorable new role
55%
are actively job searching—up from 39% in 2024
88%
say employers currently hold more power in the market
Tech professionals are willing to move despite having little confidence they'll land somewhere better. Willingness to switch employers increased year over year, yet confidence in finding favorable roles stayed flat at 41%. Active job searching surged to 55%, up sharply from 39% a year ago.
Defensive repositioning driven by pressure, not opportunistic job-hopping driven by leverage. The gap between intent and confidence reveals necessity, not opportunity.
Nine in ten believe employers hold the advantage right now. That power imbalance may help explain why so many explore options even when optimism is low.
Confidence gaps hit Gen X especially hard—they report significantly lower confidence than Millennials in their ability to find favorable roles. Millennials stand out as the most decisively confident generation, while Gen Z, Gen X, and Baby Boomers show more mixed outlooks.
AI professionals report higher confidence—38% feel more confident about job stability compared to six months ago, nearly double other tech professionals (21%). But confidence doesn't explain mobility. AI professionals plan to change employers at the same rate as everyone else, despite better prospects.
The Market Data Confirms What Tech Professionals Feel
At its peak in Q2 2022, tech job postings hit roughly 1,300,000—a level that was never going to last. Unfortunately, tech professionals who entered the field during this boom learned to expect multiple offers, rapid salary growth, and universal remote work as standard.
Today we're at 575,000 job postings, a count that has dropped below even the 2019 baseline that existed before any of this started. Companies overhired in 2021-2022, corrected through mass layoffs and hiring freezes in 2023-2024, and now operate with permanently smaller teams.
This explains the paradox in our data: 74% of tech professionals plan to change employers, but only 41% feel confident they'll land something better. They're not being pessimistic. They're reading a market where there are fewer opportunities than existed before COVID, while competing against a workforce sized for the boom that shouldn't have happened.
*Data from Lightcast
What else is driving the discontent?
Job stability jumped to the #2 reason for switching employers. This has jumped from its place at #7 in 2024.
22%
have been laid off
34%
untouched by layoffs—down from 56% in 2023
80%
believe they applied to a ghost job in the past year
52%
applied for roles significantly below their skill level just to secure employment
29%
worried about or expecting layoffs at their current employer—up from 22% in 2024
Layoffs have normalized in the tech industry. Only 34% of tech professionals remain untouched by layoffs in 2025, down sharply from 56% in 2023. Those personally laid off climbed to 22%, and nearly three in ten expect cuts at their current employer. What felt exceptional now feels inevitable.
Compensation still ranks #1 for why people switch, but job stability's rise to #2 signals the shift from growth-driven to security-driven mobility. Even tech company employees, a group who has been historically more insulated, prioritize stability when switching, significantly more than those working outside tech companies.
Remote work jumped from #7 in 2024 to top three. Meanwhile, motivations tied to leadership opportunities and increased responsibility declined. The market rewards flexibility and stability, not advancement.
The AI Maturity Factor
For AI professionals, one factor stands out: 32% seek companies advanced in AI adoption, a significantly more common preference than our general group of tech professionals. AI maturity signals which organizations invest in the future versus manage decline.
The Friction of Modern Hiring
Finding the next role became its own challenge. Eight in ten believe they applied to a "ghost job" (roles posted with no real intention to hire). Just over half applied for positions significantly below their skill level simply to get employed. These experiences explain why confidence stays low even as job-search activity accelerates. The mechanics of hiring create friction, not just the scarcity of opportunity.
The strain is showing
Burnout doubled in a year. Nearly half are burned out. Sustained, structural pressure—not weak individuals.
46%
of employed tech professionals are burned out—up from 31% in 2024
24%
very burned out—roughly double prior years
70%
of those very burned out are actively job searching
44%
pessimistic about economic conditions in the year ahead—the highest level since 2023
Burnout surged in 2025 after years of relative stability, and that “energy” (or lack thereof) is going to play a major role in the tech job market of 2026. Nearly half of employed tech professionals report being burned out, and almost one-quarter describe themselves as very burned out—roughly double just a year ago. Burnout defines today's tech workforce, not just a small segment of overworked employees.
And it drives mobility. Seven in ten very burned out tech professionals actively job search, compared with less than half of those not burned out. The pressure translates to real retention risk.
Burnout hits AI professionals and other tech professionals at similar rates. Both groups saw significant increases from 2024 to 2025, with nearly half reporting high levels. Perceived job security and market leverage don't shield workers from sustained workload pressure. Even those best positioned feel the strain.
Burnout concentrates in specific segments. The tech professionals most likely to feel burnt out have 10–19 years of experience, belong to the Millennial generation, work at small companies with fewer than 250 employees, and worry about layoffs. Mid-career professionals tend to carry heavy workloads, leadership expectations, and financial responsibilities, so they are currently bearing the brunt of sustained industry pressure. They're also more likely to want out of tech entirely and seek better leadership and flexibility.
Broader economic sentiment worsened as well in 2025. In our research, 44% express pessimism about economic conditions—the highest since 2023. This pessimism concentrates outside AI-focused roles: nearly half of non-AI tech professionals (49%) are pessimistic, significantly higher than AI professionals. This outlook coincides with widespread concern about AI-driven job loss—63% of non-AI tech professionals believe AI eliminates more jobs than it creates.
This workforce strain is real, widespread, and tied to measurable market conditions—shaping how tech professionals evaluate opportunities and employers.
Average Salaries in Top Tech Hubs
(interactive)
The darkest regions on this map represent the highest average salaries, where coastal premiums can exceed $150K, while lighter areas reveal emerging markets where hirers can access quality talent at 20-30% lower cost. But salary is only half the story. Volume growth, skills demand, and market saturation determine where placements actually happen.
The AI acceleration (and the governance gap)
Daily AI use quadrupled. Fewer than half of employers have formal AI policies. Speed without guardrails creates advantage for some, anxiety for others.
Daily AI use quadrupled
year-over-year
35%
now responsible for designing, developing, or implementing AI solutions—up significantly from a year ago
63%
of non-AI tech professionals believe AI eliminates more jobs than it creates
48%
say their employer introduced formal AI policies
23%
used AI without their manager's knowledge or approval
75%
believe junior-level employees face highest risk of AI displacement
AI became core to tech work—fast. Daily use of generative AI for work-related tasks quadrupled year over year, and more than one-third now directly design, develop, or implement AI solutions. Integration, not experimentation.
Among AI professionals, usage is especially (and unsurprisingly) embedded: nine in ten use generative AI for work at least weekly, six in ten use it daily. AI became fundamental to how work gets done—tech professionals report that it is automating repetitive tasks, generating code and scripts, drafting documentation, handling business communications.
AI adoption varies sharply by age. Gen Z and Millennials use generative AI at least weekly—and daily—significantly more than Gen X and Baby Boomers. AI embeds earlier in career workflows, while adoption stays more measured among older cohorts.
Perceived Impact Is Growing
Perceptions of AI's impact shifted decisively as usage increased. Significantly more say genAI has "significant impact" on their work, while those saying "no impact" declined sharply. Looking ahead: only 4% believe genAI won't impact their work in the next year, while six in ten expect significant impact.
Governance Gaps Create Risk
But governance and trust didn't keep pace. Just under half say their employer introduced formal AI policies, leaving many without clear guidance. Lack of policy suppresses use: 22% at organizations without clear AI policies never use AI for work, compared with 8% at companies with formal policies.
Trust in responsible AI use varies sharply. Six in ten AI professionals feel confident their employer uses AI responsibly, compared with 41% of other tech professionals. Among those whose employer lacks formal AI policies, confidence drops to 26%.
Without clear guardrails, risky behaviors emerge. One-quarter used genAI without their manager's knowledge or approval, signaling both demand for AI tools and gaps in oversight.
How Proximity Shapes Perception
The divide in AI experience extends to perceptions of workforce impact. AI professionals split nearly evenly on whether AI creates or eliminates more jobs, reflecting nuanced, experience-driven views. In contrast, nearly two-thirds of other tech professionals believe AI eliminates more jobs than it creates—almost double the rate of AI professionals expecting net job loss.
Perceptions vary by workplace context: tech company professionals more likely believe AI creates jobs, while those outside tech companies expect net job loss. In short, proximity to AI development and adoption shapes how workforce impact is understood (and generally, we are seeing a lower rate of job loss concern within the groups working closer to it).
Junior Roles Face Highest Displacement Risk
We also asked tech professionals who they believe to be the most at risk of job displacement due to AI. Three-quarters believe junior-level employees face highest risk of AI displacement, while managers and people leaders face least impact. Younger tech professionals—Gen Z and Millennials—are significantly more likely than Gen X and Baby Boomers to see junior-level roles as most vulnerable, likely reflecting their career stage and exposure to automation of entry-level tasks.
Long-term skills relevance concerns reinforce this anxiety. Extreme concern about skills becoming obsolete nearly doubles over a 10-year horizon—even among AI professionals—signaling unease about career longevity in an AI-driven future. Among AI professionals, 29% were extremely concerned their skills become obsolete in 10 years; among other tech professionals, 33%.
Why Tech Professionals Use (or Avoid) AI
Efficiency and time savings drive genAI use at work, particularly for repetitive or time-consuming tasks. But AI professionals are significantly more likely to believe using genAI makes them more competitive and relevant—reinforcing AI as a perceived career advantage rather than threat within AI-adjacent roles.
Meanwhile, 15% of all tech professionals don't use genAI at work, and nearly half cite trust concerns or preference for doing work themselves. Notably, this non-use seems driven by skepticism, not lack of access. Only two in ten say their employer requires disclosure when AI produces work, though this rises to 40% among AI professionals. Despite widespread AI integration, most believe they could maintain productivity without it: three-quarters say they could keep up current output if AI tools were banned tomorrow. AI viewed as powerful accelerator, but not yet indispensable.
The long view is clouding
Belief in tech's five-year growth dropped from 80% to 60%. Optimism about tech's future is no longer a given.
Despite tech's historical resilience, confidence in the profession's long-term growth softened meaningfully in this year’s research. Those believing the industry grows over the next five years dropped from roughly 80% in 2023–2024 to 60% in 2025, while concern about long-term decline nearly tripled. Optimism about tech's future is no longer taken for granted—particularly outside fast-growing AI domains.
AI Professional Optimism May Differ From General Tech
Long-term optimism diverges sharply by role and workplace. Three-quarters of AI professionals expect tech growth over the next five years, compared with just over half of other tech professionals. Expectations of decline are even more pronounced among tech professionals working outside tech companies, who are significantly more likely to believe the profession declines over the next five years.
While confidence among AI professionals remains comparatively strong, it softened year over year as expectations of decline increase. Even AI optimism is no longer immune to broader market pressures.
A New Narrative
This erosion in long-term confidence connects to broader themes: layoffs normalizing, economic pessimism reaching its highest point since 2023, and a growing sense that the narrative of inevitable tech growth is being questioned for the first time in years.
The flight risk map
Women, Black tech professionals, Gen X, and mid-career workers are most likely to leave their current role. Retention challenges cluster where pressure, burnout, and instability intersect.
Not all tech professionals are equally likely to leave—or stay. High mobility intent concentrates in specific segments reporting higher burnout, greater layoff concerns, and lower confidence in job stability. Meanwhile, retention remains strongest among those who trust their employer's AI governance, feel confident in job stability, and work in environments with clear policies and expectations.
Tech professionals most likely to plan to leave:
- Black/African American tech professionals
- Gen X (age 44–59)
- Mid-career workers with 5–9 or 15–19 years of experience
- Those at small companies (fewer than 250 employees)
- Professionals who don't work at tech companies
- Individuals in their current role 3–9 years
These groups also more likely to report burnout, worry about layoffs, and express low confidence in job stability.
These patterns reveal where employers face highest retention risk—and what levers actually matter. Retention in 2025 isn't about perks or compensation alone. It's about restoring confidence, demonstrating stability, building trust around AI governance, and creating environments where mid-career professionals don't carry unsustainable loads without support or recognition.
Tech professionals most likely to plan to leave:
- Gen Z (age 18–28)
- Those with 3–4 years of total experience
- Workers at mid-size companies (250–499 employees)
- Tech professionals either new to their current role (less than one year) or very tenured (20+ years)
- Those with higher confidence in their employer's responsible AI use
- Workers at companies requiring disclosure of AI use
- Tech professionals who feel more confident in job stability
Surprising Findings from Gen Z
Gen Z's lower flight risk is particularly striking. Despite being earlier in their careers and potentially more vulnerable to displacement, they report lower intent to leave than older cohorts. This raises questions about what's different in their expectations, risk tolerance, or market experience.
Meanwhile, mid-career professionals—especially Millennials with 10–19 years of experience—bear the brunt of burnout and instability pressure. They're managing teams, carrying institutional knowledge, navigating layoffs, and questioning whether the trade-offs are still worth it.
AI Governance as a Retention Lever
AI governance emerges as a clear retention lever. Those confident in their employer's responsible AI use are significantly less likely to plan to leave. Transparency, clear policies and trust matter.
What This Moment Demands
The data confirms what you're already seeing: candidates are more mobile yet more cautious, more actively searching yet less confident, more willing to move yet more skeptical of opportunities. This isn't irrational behavior on the part of tech professionals. It's a smart response to real market conditions—layoffs normalizing, burnout doubling, and long-term confidence eroding.
Strategic recalibration matters a lot in 2026. For employers, what signals stability to candidates—AI governance and transparency, financial health, clear policies, leadership that acknowledges market strain—is now table stakes for competitive hiring and minimizing retention risk. For staffing firms, knowing where leverage exists in the candidate pool—AI skills in high demand, certain segments primed to move, specific motivators that now outweigh others—creates advantage in sourcing and placement strategy.
Tech professionals are still engaged, still capable, still essential to business success. But they're operating with eyes open, with less tolerance for instability, and with clearer expectations about what employers must deliver.
This moment will pass. Markets recalibrate and confidence rebuilds. But you'll navigate this period best by trusting the data over assumptions, moving strategically rather than reactively, leading with transparency and stability in candidate conversations, and recognizing that today's defensive mobility isn't candidate weakness—it's smart risk management that requires an equally sophisticated response.