Data Science and Forecasting Lead

About Carrier:

Carrier, global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, is committed to creating innovations that bring comfort, safety and sustainability to life. Through cutting-edge advancements in climate solutions such as temperature control, air quality and transportation, we improve lives, empower critical industries and ensure the safe transport of food, life-saving medicines and more. Since inventing modern air conditioning in 1902, we lead with purpose: enhancing the lives we live and the world we share. We continue to lead because of our world-class, inclusive workforce that puts the customer at the center of everything we do. For more information, visit corporate.carrier.com or follow Carrier on social media at @Carrier.

About This Role:

The RLC (Residential and Light Commercial) Data Science and Forecasting Lead is responsible for developing Carrier-specific demand forecast models for the North America Residential and Light Commercial markets.

In partnership with the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team, this critical role will forecast industry trends, identify key industry growth drivers, and report insights within the organization.

This role partners closely with the Climate Solutions Americas leaders responsible for Residential and Light Commercial strategy and market intelligence, as well as executive leadership and cross-functional teams to shape near-term and long-range industry outlook as well as demand and strategic planning.

Key Responsibilities:

Industry Demand Forecasting

• Maintain and refine industry demand models to forecast short-term and long-term North America Residential and Light Commercial HVAC market demand.
• Generate supplemental industry outlook forecast scenarios through sensitivity analysis against key variables and assumptions to provide senior leadership with a lower and upper bound for the forecast, in addition to the baseline forecast.
• Leverage, maintain, and refine Carrier's demand sensing forecast for Residential and Light Commercial to detect and respond to short-term changes in customer demand.

Forecast Performance Monitoring

• Track forecast model accuracy using KPIs such as MAPE.
• Continuously improve model accuracy and forecasting methodologies.

Insights Communication

• Prepare monthly executive-level demand outlook reports.
• Maintain and refine market intelligence dashboard for senior leadership.
• Proactively highlight "Red Flag" metrics (e.g. housing market weakness, non-residential construction trend, consumer sentiment) identified by the demand forecasting model.

Demand Planning

• Pressure-test the Annual Operating Plan (Plan) industry outlook forecast to ensure achievability and reasonableness.
• Collaborate with North America Sales & Operations Planning personnel to mutually develop the SIOP monthly demand forecast for North America Residential and Light Commercial, which balances unconstrainted demand and supply constraints.

Market Intelligence Integration

• Incorporate U.S. and Canadian regulatory changes (e.g., SEER2 standards, refrigerant transition) and insights from the Market Intelligence and Strategic Insights team into the forecast and demand planning models.
• Maintain an in-depth knowledge of designated markets and trends through monitoring industry reports, market research, and relevant macroeconomic data, most notably from Moody's, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and HARDI.

Basic Qualifications:

• Bachelor's degree.
• 5+ years of combined experience in demand forecasting, economic modelling, and data analytics.
• 2+ years' experience with time-series modeling (ARIMA, regression, leading indicator models).
• 5+ years' experience in developing executive-level summaries and presentations.
• 5+ years' experience with Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint.

Preferred Qualifications (nice to have):

• Master's degree, preferably in Economics, Statistics, Finance, Data Science/Analytics, Supply Chain, or related field.
• Experience with business intelligence, analytics, data visualization and Supply Chain management tools such as Power BI, Tableau, ThinkCell, Kinaxis and similar tools.
• Experience with statistical modeling, data science tools such as Python, SAS, cloud platforms or similar tools.
• Familiarity with U.S. and Canadian HVAC industry, including current and future regulations and standards, market dynamics and distribution channels.
• Knowledge of macroeconomic trends and factors and their impact on HVAC demand (e.g. regional climate trends, mortgage interest rates, residential new construction starts, existing home sales).
• An ability to work collaboratively and deliver results through virtual collaboration environments leveraging platforms such as Microsoft Teams.
• Proven ability to execute with speed and exhibit a bias for action.

Additional information:

• Immigration sponsorship is not supported for this position.

Benefits:

Employees are eligible for benefits, including:

• Health Care benefits: Medical, Dental, Vision; wellness incentives
• Retirement benefits
• Time Off and Leave: Paid vacation days, up to 15 days; paid sick days, up to 5 days; paid personal leave, up to 5 days; paid holidays, up to 13 days; birth and adoption leave; parental leave; family and medical leave; bereavement leave; jury duty; military leave; purchased vacation
• Disability: Short-term and long-term disability
• Life Insurance and Accidental Death and Dismemberment
• Tax-Advantaged Accounts: Health Savings Account; Healthcare Spending Account; Dependent Care Spending Account
• Tuition Assistance

To learn more about our benefits offering, please click here: Work With Us | Carrier Corporate The specific benefits available to any employee may vary depending on state and local laws and eligibility factors, such as date of hire and the applicability of collective bargaining agreements.

This position is entitled to short-term cash incentives, subject to plan requirements.

Pay Range:

The annual salary for this position is $120,000-$168,000. Factors which may affect pay within this range include, but are not limited to, skills, education, experience, and other unique qualifications of the successful candidate.

Applications will be accepted for at least 3 days from Job Posting Date. Job Posting Date: 03/05/2026

Carrier is An Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, disability or veteran status, age or any other federally protected class.

Job Applicant's Privacy Notice:

Click on this link to read the Job Applicant's Privacy Notice