Actuarial Forecasting Lead

Location: Remote (USA)
Duration: 12+ Months Contract
Industry: Warranty / Mobile Device Protection / Supply Chain
Start Date: ASAP

About the Role

We are seeking an experienced Actuarial Forecasting Lead who understands claims behavior, loss development, and the financial performance of insurance and protection products. The individual will work closely with actuarial, finance, supply chain, data science, and technology teams to strengthen claims projections, loss estimates, and actuarial modeling capabilities.

This role reports directly to senior global leadership and requires a seasoned actuarial professional with strong experience in warranty programs, mobile device protection, actuarial forecasting, pricing, reserving, and profitability analysis.

What We're Looking For

• 12-15+ years of actuarial experience with strong leadership capabilities.
• Extensive experience across Warranty Programs, Extended Warranty, Service Contracts, and Mobile Device Protection.
• Strong expertise in Personal Lines and Commercial Lines Insurance.
• Demonstrated experience in Actuarial Pricing, Claims Reserving, Loss Development Analysis, and Profitability Analysis.
• Experience supporting warranty claims forecasting, financial projections, and portfolio performance management.
• Strong understanding of warranty claims operations, product failure trends, repair costs, replacement demand, and supply chain implications.
• Proven ability to partner directly with executive leadership and provide strategic actuarial recommendations.
• Experience leading cross-functional initiatives involving Actuarial, Finance, Claims, Underwriting, Supply Chain, and Technology teams.

Experience

• Strong experience in actuarial modeling, claims frequency and severity analysis, loss ratio projections, and claims cost estimation.
• Good understanding of extended warranty, device protection, service contracts, or specialty insurance products.
• Experience in claims reserving, loss development analysis, and ultimate loss projections.
• Hands-on experience building and reviewing actuarial models using historical claims experience, exposure data, product mix, and cost assumptions.
• Understanding of repair and replacement costs, claim incidence rates, product failure patterns, and their impact on loss projections.
• Experience with actuarial and analytical tools.
• Exposure to statistical modeling and AI/ML techniques applied to claims forecasting and loss estimation.
• Experience working with actuarial, claims, underwriting, finance, and supply chain teams.

Responsibilities

• Review existing actuarial forecasting models, methodologies, and assumptions used to project warranty claims, device failures, and replacement demand.
• Analyze historical claims data, failure rates, product behavior, repair trends, and replacement patterns to understand factors influencing future claims volumes.
• Assess the reliability of actuarial forecasts and identify gaps in modeling approaches, data quality, and underlying assumptions.
• Evaluate and recommend suitable statistical, actuarial, predictive, and machine learning techniques to improve forecast accuracy.
• Work closely with actuarial, supply chain, data science, and engineering teams to enhance forecasting models and align outputs with business planning needs.
• Validate forecast results through actual-versus-expected analysis, back-testing, and scenario analysis.
• Lead functional discussions, model validation activities, and business acceptance of forecasting solutions.
• Provide actuarial insights and recommendations to senior leadership to support strategic planning and business decision-making.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's or Master's degree in Actuarial Science, Statistics, Mathematics, Economics, Data Science, or a related quantitative discipline.
• Professional actuarial certifications (ASA, ACAS, FSA, FCAS, or equivalent) are preferred but not mandatory.
• Practical experience in actuarial modeling, claims forecasting, pricing, reserving, and applying actuarial projections to business planning is essential.
• Prior experience within warranty, device protection, specialty insurance, or related insurance domains is highly preferred.